Forecasting vs. Hopecasting: How I Build Revenue Reality 

Because hope is not a strategy, it’s a trap. 

Too often, what passes as a “sales forecast” is really a hopecast: a spreadsheet full of assumptions, built too late and reviewed too little. 

It’s not rooted in math. It’s not connected to reality. And it’s definitely not a system for driving predictable revenue. 

That’s why I build forecasts differently. I engineer them. 

Here’s how I build a math-based, account-informed forecast that aligns the entire go-to-market system, from account managers to campaign plans. If you want a system that tells you where to focus, what to do, and how to stay on track, this is how it starts. 

1. Start Early. Way Earlier Than You Think 

Forecasting is not a Q1 activity. It's a Q4 priority. 

If your fiscal starts in January, your forecast should be finalized by October. If  you’re on a July fiscal, April is your deadline. 

And if your deal velocity is 6 months? You need to start building the forecast six months in advance. Why? Because the actions you take now define your pipeline half a year from now. Lagging indicator thinking kills predictability. 

Do you want to hit the ground running on Day 1 of the fiscal? Then the forecast needs to be live and operational before that. 

2. Begin With What You Know: Your Book of Business 

I always start with existing accounts. They’re the most reliable source of revenue, and the best indicator of where growth can come from. 

I break accounts into three tiers: 

• Tier 1: Strategic — large, long-term, high-opportunity 
• Tier 2: Growth — solid accounts with expansion potential 
• Tier 3: Transactional — less strategic, but still revenue 

Tier 1 and 2 typically make up 80% of the revenue. That’s where the forecasting starts. Then I apply a simple formula: 

(Book of Business – Churn) × (1 + Expansion Rate) 

The key is being brutally honest: 

• What’s at risk? 
• What’s growing? 
• What’s shrinking? 

This gives me my revenue floor. Revenue I can count on without any new acquisition. 

3. Find the Gap, Then Do the Math 

Let’s say that my base forecast is $5M in revenue, but our growth goal is $6.5M. That’s a $1.5M gap. 

This is where most teams drift into hopecasting. They just say, “We’ll go get it.” But I break that number down into deal math: 

• Average deal size: $50K 
• New clients needed: 30 
• Close rate: 30% 
• Qualified opportunities needed: 100 
• Touchpoints needed: 300+ 

Now I’m not hoping. I have activity targets, pipeline requirements, and funnel math to guide the team. This is where the numbers start to support your Go-To-Market planning strategy. 

4. Forecast by Account. Not by Guesswork 

This is where the detailed forecasting begins: at the account level. 

Every Tier 1 and Tier 2 account gets: 

• A revenue projection 
• A product/service forecast 
• A plan: retain, expand, or recover 

This helps me align expectations across the team. I also look at timing: 

• Do they order quarterly or seasonally? 
• Are there projects we can align to? 
• Are they consolidating vendors or growing headcount? 

I look at historic cadence, volume, and intent. That way, we’re not just projecting, we’re planning. 

5. Pressure-Test with Market Reality 

Forecasts that ignore the market don’t last. 

Before I finalize anything, I ask: 

• Are we launching something new that changes our upside? 
• Are competitors retreating or getting aggressive? 
• Are there external factors (eg. budget freezes, policy shifts, supply issues), that we need to account for? 

If I don’t know, I ask. I’ll survey our top 20 accounts to learn how they’re planning. That input shapes how aggressive or cautious we need to be. 

6. Operationalize the Forecast into a System 

Once the forecast is built, it becomes the foundation: 

• Account plans 
• Acquisition targets 
• Quarterly campaign timing 
• Weekly scorecards 
• Sales activity metrics 

It defines what has to happen each quarter, by whom, and by when. 

And when the forecast is tracked weekly, gaps don’t surprise us. We can adjust levers early, new campaigns, deeper expansion, or quicker follow-ups.  

That’s the job of revenue operations: to make sure your GTM planning and execution stay in sync with reality. 

The system tells you what’s working, and what isn’t. 

Why This Matters 

When I do this right, we don’t “hope” to grow, we engineer growth. 

I’ve replaced gut feel with scorecards. Optimism with operations. Hunches with history. 

A real forecast doesn’t just tell me what might happen. It tells me what must happen, and gives the team a plan to get there. 

The difference between forecasting and hopecasting is the difference between leading growth and chasing it. 

So here’s my challenge to you: 
Are you betting on your future, or building it? 

Want the Models I Use? 

You’ll get my forecasting templates, growth calculators, and GTM frameworks to build your own system. 

Let’s build something that scales. 
Let’s build your revenue factory. 
One brick at a time. 

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